2013 Academy Awars Predictions

It's that time of the year again, folks, and the predictometers are a-working overtime.

The 2013 Academy Awards are to be announced this Sunday and here are Cinewise's own little predictions, wishes, and a few other words to that effect. As per previous years, I will only comment on categories where I have seen at least 3 films. The minimum for Best Motion Picture is 5, because of the expanded number of nominees.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts on this Sunday's glam-a-thon:

The Obligatory Oscar Predictions Post

Yes, it's that time of the year. The awards season usually outlast its welcome around the time when the Golden Globes are given, i.e. precisely when the 3-month-long charade begins. Think about it: for a quarter of every year we are obsessed about a finite list of films and about their chances of winning the one that matters. Golden Globes, critics' circle awards from a few First World metropolises (is that the plural of metropolis?), country club (a.k.a. guild) awards, BAFTAs, Razzies ... it doesn't matter, because every single mention of these awards will be followed the mention of the Big One. It's inevitable. And say what you will about the choices that the Academy have made over the years, it is still the most prestigious award in the world. Perhaps only the Nobel prizes garner as much worldwide media mention as the Oscars, but their popularity is only boosted by their credibility (for want of a better word). Oscars, on the other hand, matter to everyone, regardless of their interest in chemistry, literature, or magic (a.k.a. economics).

Biutiful (2010)

Alejandro González Iñárritu's latest film comes without all the hoopla of the other Oscar favourites that grace UK cinemas this time of the year. It is always interesting to see some mind-numbingly awful kiddie films and more adult-oriented films being released around the same time (of course, adult-themed here does not mean pornographic).

Biutiful is different to its contemporaries in that it is only nominated in two of the major categories: Best Actor for Javier Bardem and Best Foreign Language Film as a representative of Mexico. On both counts, I don't see a reason why it should be denied them.

And nobody talks about it.

Oscars 2011: The Should-Winners

My BAFTA predictions were quite off the mark and the main reasons for that debacle were the mushy heart and the myopic vision of the BAFTA members in giving The King's Speech awards in categories that it truly did not deserve - no one can tell me with a straight face that David Seidler's script (decent as it is) deserves more credit than Inception or Black Swan or The Fighter or even The Kids Are All Right.

Either way, good for The King's Speech - at least it's a film partially funded by the UK Film Council and when it wins a plethora of awards come next Sunday, David Cameron's cabinet will have made yet another ill-judged cut in their hands. But, this is not a political blog, so let's get back to film.

BAFTA 2011

It's an awards show! What's not to like? Perhaps understandably, BAFTAs get the smelly end of the big awards hoopla, mainly because they are not held in the glitzy Hollywood, but in the drizzly London. Looking outside the window, I'm pretty sure the celebs are re-thinking their wardrobe choices.

The location of the awards play an important part in BAFTA Awards' desperate attempt at being relevant, which is why I have a rather dubious perspective. And here's my point - in a year when UK Film Council is no more, it is a slap in the face to have an awards show that instead of giving priority to local output, it acts as a dress rehearsal for Hollywood's big do in a couple of weeks' time.

The 83rd Academy Award Nominations - Picks and Reactions

The nominees for this year’s Academy Awards were announced this morning. Hearts were spirited or broken, producers pleased or pissed… and now four weeks into 2011, we may finally begin to close the door on 2010.

Here’s a rundown of the nominees, as well as some off the cuff reactions and quick picks (which I reserve the right to change until the week… the day… the hour… the minute before the Oscars go live...)

Black Swan (2010)

 Directed by the talented but persistently depressing Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, Requiem for a Dream), Black Swan is a psycho-sexual thriller about a ballerina pushed to the brink of madness, only to look back and realize she’d crossed that line long ago. Heavily dramatized and thematically blunt, it is a powerful exploration of the strive for perfection, and the casualties of life often found in its wake.

oscar Preview Review: Invictus (2009)

What I said before Cinewise:

Sure, it’s prestigious and decorated with award aspiration achievements. But it’s also paper thin and almost completely devoid of conflict. Morgan Freeman’s turn as South African president Nelson Mandela isn’t nearly as intriguing as Frank Langella’s portrayal of Nixon was last year, but it’s still Oscar bate. It’s the role itself that leaves us wanting.

Oscar Preview Review: The Blind Side (2009)

What I said before Cinewise:

The Blind Side, but only if you have the same taste as The Movie Gal, who loved it. Care to share why, Movie Gal? “Yes, it’s based on the true story of football player Michael Oher, but this film is so simultaneously heartwarming and hilarious that it actually made for a perfect girls night out. The acting is spectacular (perhaps Sandra Bullock’s best performance to date), and amidst the very thought-provoking moral themes are some surprisingly hilarious scenes! We went to the theater prepared with tissues, but didn’t expect to also walk away with so many good laughs and so much to discuss afterwards.” Hey, it’s the #1 movie in America for a reason, people.

Oscar Preview Review: Avatar (2009)

What I said about it last fall:

Look, I’m not going to pretend the latest film from self-appointed King of the World James Cameron is as amazing as most critics and the advertising onslaught would have you believe – I mean, it’s basically a cross of Dances with Wolves (1990) and Ferngully (1992). But visually, technologically and – based on record breaking Box Office numbers largely brought about by word of mouth – financially, it’s a gem. With his live-action 3D approach, Cameron set out to change the way we see movies, and he’s most likely succeeded.

Oscar Preview Review: Up in the Air (2009)

What I said before Cinewise:

Co-written and directed by Juno (2007) helmer Jason Reitman, Air is very much akin to The Graduate (1967) in that it’s quiet, whimsical and contemplative, and filled with strong characters and great dialogue. It’s also a coming of age story, a film about taking chances and finding your place in the world...only this time the hero is a middle-aged George Clooney.

Broken down and isolated by a career spent traveling the country firing people (he’s the guy the corporations bring in to clean up their mess), Clooney’s Ryan Bingham is essentially homeless. The planes and airports and rental cars and hotels are the only things close to providing home comforts, and that’s every bit as sad as it sounds. Only Ryan doesn’t see it that way – he’s empowered by his lifestyle. He believes it’s his “place.” The goal of Up in the Air is to challenge that belief, for Ryan to determine if he’s right or wrong, and to leave room for both possibilities.

Intricate in its simplicity, Reitman’s film is equal parts bitter and sweet, and finds a rare crowd-pleasing formula in that concoction. Clooney’s surrounded by an excellent supporting cast, including Vera Farmiga (The Departed, 2007) as a commiserating traveler and Anna Kendrick (Twilight series) as his reluctant protégé. Combined with the story’s quirky but excellent journey and focus on the pleasures of connecting through humanity, the true brilliance in Reitman’s film can be found in its ability to leverage these characteristics toward building a cinematic “comfort zone” in a film that explores just what that term even really means

Best Picture vs. Best Director – The case of Cameron v. Bigelow

It’s funny, because only a decade or so ago such a case title would have held a completely different meaning. But these days the former spouses are at the forefront of one of Oscar’s greatest battles – the populist, studio driven power vs. the indie film eccentricities. We’ve seen it year after year, with wins awarded to each team. Last year, Slumdog Millionaire‘s little movie that could won out over Benjamin Button and the like (and rightly so). In 2006, The Departed notched a win for the studios, bullying Little Miss Sunshine (and rightly so). 1998 saw indetrendy Shakespeare in Love over the big, brute power of Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan (wrongly so). 1994’s big picture Forrest Gump over risky, indie-spirited Pulp Fiction (…push). Heck, James Cameron himself won with Titanic in 1997, backed by a positive populist response and a then Box Office sales record.

And now, more than a decade later, here he is again in a similar situation, except this time opposing his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow and her Hurt Locker, a film devastatingly more powerful in heart and spirit, but dwarfed by the shadow of Cameron’s big, expensive and arguably ground-breaking picture show.

That last bit is the reason Avatar is favored to win it all this year – it’s new, it’s shiny, and it’s exciting. And most importantly, it’s gotten people excited to go to the movies again (although far fewer people than 1939’s Gone with the Wind, not to be forgotten as the biggest crowd-pleaser of all time). You can’t take that achievement away from Cameron, and you can’t belittle what Avatar means to the industry.

But is that reason enough to give Avatar the big prize? Do we need to repeat history, just because Avatar won over a Titanic-sized crowd? And more importantly, had it been given the chance, would Hurt Locker have wowed the same crowds?

We live in a world where we’ll never know, and as a result, the Academy is likely to play it safe, rewarding the big, expensive crowd pleaser with Best Picture, and tagging Bigelow with the comparative booby prize of Best Director. It might seem wrong to label that award a door prize, since it really is a prestigious honor. But in this situation, that’s exactly what it is – second place. Honorable mention. Recognition that “you did a great job directing AND producing a great film, but Avatar is prettier and nicer and a more public appropriate choice.” That’s what they’ll be saying when they give Cameron and producing partner Jon Landau the best picture statue, and by Vegas standards, it’s a safe bet they will.

And when they do, they’ll split the award and make Bigelow the first female Best Director winner, making history and keeping their diplomatic cool. But what if…

What if it went the other way? What if they rewarded Bigelow for her amazing work bringing the most powerful, honest and realistic Iraq war film to date to the screen (not counting the stateside drama of The Messenger, which is at least a close second), constructing those amazing intense and thrilling scenes, sending audiences into stunned silence as the credits roll and they digest what they just experienced. What if they recognized Hurt Locker as the Best Picture it is, and gave Cameron the director award in recognition of his directorial and technological achievement? Because that’s exactly what Avatar is – an achievement. Hurt Locker is a film. Complete, from beginning frame to end. Avatar has ups and downs, and wins with wow. Hurt Locker wins by being the best.

Like I said, you really can’t knock either film. Well, I guess you CAN mock Avatar, but you’ll have a harder time doing that with Locker, and that’s probably saying something right there. Personally, having finally seen Hurt Locker, I think Bigelow and co. deserve to win BOTH awards. But they won’t.

In Cameron v. Bigelow, the prizes will be split, distributed like possessions in an amicable divorce hearing. There’s still a chance the judges will make the right choice, and give the biggest and most important possession to Bigelow. I’m sure Vegas will take you up on those odds any day.

Any day but Monday.

The Oscars: An Alternative View

As The Bru recently wrote about how he loves the arguments and endless discussions cinematic awards ceremonies generate, I figured I'd use my first Cinewise posting as an opportunity to fuel that fire and provide an alternative pics column for the most talked about and aggravating award ceremony of them all. Following the same rulez The Bru laid out, we’ll address who should win, who will win, and who the hell cares anyway.

BEST MOTION PICTURE:
Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up In the Air.
Should Win: I’ll start right off the bat by saying that I, like 90% of the world population, haven’t yet seen The Hurt Locker, so this is likely to change. But then again, maybe not – I didn’t LOVE Avatar, but I respect it for what it is – THE motion picture event of the year. Most people saw it. Most people loved it. And if the Best Picture award should go to the film most endearing to the people, as well as most accomplished in its execution, than this is the film that hits the combo lotto. Now, if Star Trek had been nominated…
Will Win: Avatar, for the reasons stated above.
Shouldn’t Even Be Here: The Blind Side. Even if they expanded it to 20.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow, James Cameron, Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman, Quentin Tarantino.
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow, if only because she directed a little film about the war that nobody saw and yet everybody loves, and she’s still here, not the least of which because she survived a marriage to ego-maniac Cameron.
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow. Because damn you, James Cameron! You can’t have EVERYTHING!
It Would Be Neat To See Win: Tarantino. Icon. Legend. B-Movie aficionado. A lifetime achievement award in the making.

BEST ACTOR:
Nominees: Jeff Bridges, George Clooney, Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, Jeremy Renner
Should Win: Jeff Bridges. Crazy Heart (review to follow) presents an aged fighter in a knock-down, drag out battle with himself, a meaty performance Bridges nails.
Will Win: Jeff Bridges, because sometimes some things go right in this world.
Shouldn’t Even Be Here: Morgan Freeman. Everybody loves you, Morgan Freeman. But that doesn’t mean we have to give you a statue for playing Morgan Freeman. That goes to you too, Clooney. Okay, alright, you’ve charmed me. You can have the statue now. And here’s $200 for Haiti while I’m at it. Should I offer you my wife, or have you already stolen her?

BEST ACTRESS:
Nominees: Sandra Bullock, Helen Mirren, Carey Mulligan, Gabourey Sidibe, Meryl Streep.
Should Win: Holy Shit! I just realized I haven’t seen ANY of these performances. Not a single one! How could this happen? By The Bru’s rules I can’t even pick!
Will Win: Sandra Bullock. Because she’s somehow the front runner, and because she’s the only who got her movie into the Best Picture race.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Nominees: Matt Damon, Woody Harrelson, Chrisopher Plummer, Stanley Tucci, Christoph Waltz.
Should Win: Waltz. Because it was the best single performance of the year, male, female, leading or otherwise. Or at least it was the most fun.
Will Win: Waltz.
Would Be Awesome If He Won: Harrelson, because The Messenger was great, and he was great in it. He’s the second best here, and sometimes that’s good enough.
Shouldn’t Even Be Here: Matt Damon. Who was he again in this movie? The guy on the field? What was he asked to do? Look muscle-ly? Wow, great job with that!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Nominees: Penelope Cruz, Vera Farmiga, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Anna Kendrick, Mo’nique.
Should Win: HA! I saw HALF of these. See? I don’t hate women in strong movie roles! I’d give this to Anna, because she was the biggest surprise of the Up in the Air duo, but Vera’s the steady hand.
Will Win: No idea. Mo’nique? Is that THE Mo'nique?

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Nominees: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up.
Should Win: Mr. Fox. A clever and unique film with a tangibility traditional animated flicks can’t shake a tail at.
Will Win: Up. ‘Cause Pixar is bordering on dangerously untouchable.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman (The Messenger), Joel and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man), Peter Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy (Up)
Should Win: Camon and Moverman, for tackling a tough subject with barebones authenticity. Powerfully moving, and wholly underrated.
Will Win: Boal, because Locker’s gotta win something.
Maybe Possibly Shouldn’t Even Be Here: Tarantino. His script was a mess. Great scenes, great dialogue, great characters. But messy, messy script. Same goes for the Up folks.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Nominees: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9), Nick Hornby (An Education), The Dudes who wrote In the Loop, Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious), Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air).
Should Win: Reitman and Turner. Up in the Air may not be a GREAT flick, but it’s a really nice, surprisingly grounded story.
Will Win: The Loop guys? Maybe?
Shouldn’t Even Be Here: The District 9 boys, not because they don’t deserve it, but because a feature length version of your own short shouldn’t necessarily be seen as an adaptation. Bad, Oscar, bad.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
Nominees: Ajami, El Secreto de Sus Ojos, The Milk of Sorrow, Un Prophete, The White Ribbon
Should Win: Whatever The Bru says.
Will Win: Whatever The Bru wants.
Shouldn’t Be Here: The Milk of Sorrow. The Milk of Sorrow? What kind of title is that?

EVERYTHING ELSE:
Avatar. Damn you, James Cameron. Damn you.